Bitcoin edged higher this week, climbing above $123,000 after dipping briefly below $121,000. The move followed a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who avoided any direct comment on monetary policy. Markets took that as a positive sign, reading his silence as an indication that the Fed’s stance remains flexible. Traders are now betting on an interest rate cut at the Fed’s October 29 meeting, with CME FedWatch data showing a 94.6% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. This expectation has added fresh fuel to Bitcoin’s rally, which already saw the cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high above $126,000 earlier this week. Powell’s restraint contrasts with growing optimism inside the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), whose recent minutes revealed a dovish shift. Several members now see room for multiple rate cuts by year-end. Such expectations have boosted risk appetite across markets, giving BTC room to recover after last week’s volatility.
Bitcoin’s Supercycle: The Next Stage Unfolds
Beyond short-term price action, analysts say Bitcoin may be entering a historic “supercycle.” According to Glassnode data, strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and widespread accumulation suggest the bull run could extend far beyond traditional four-year cycles. ETFs recorded $2.2 billion in net inflows last week, the second-largest figure ever. This mirrors late-2024, when similar inflows pushed BTC from $67,000 to over $100,000 in just six weeks. Glassnode’s analysts describe these inflows as a “durable tailwind,” absorbing available supply and reinforcing liquidity. At the same time, whales and mid-sized investors are steadily accumulating Bitcoin. The Accumulation Trend Score—an on-chain indicator measuring investor behavior—is approaching 1, a sign of intense buying across all wallet sizes. Analysts see this as proof that the market’s foundation is becoming stronger, setting the stage for a more sustainable, long-term rally.
Bitcoin Technicals Point to a Supercharged Phase
Technicians are increasingly convinced that Bitcoin’s next leg higher could be explosive. Analysts highlight a rare formation known as the Jesse Livermore “Accumulation Cylinder,” now visible on BTC’s monthly chart. This pattern often signals the final stages of consolidation before a vertical breakout. Market watcher Merlijn The Trader believes Bitcoin is entering “Stage 8 — the mania phase,” with possible targets between $450,000 and $500,000. Another analyst, Bitcoinsensus, noted that BTC’s current setup resembles previous Q4 rallies, when the coin broke from similar megaphone patterns to deliver massive upside. Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, often supported by portfolio rebalancing and renewed risk appetite. If ETF inflows remain steady through November, Glassnode expects this “durable momentum” to continue, anchoring prices into the end of the year.
Traders Turn Cautious, but Optimism Persists
Despite record highs, not everyone is rushing in. Bitcoin’s open interest on Binance fell from $15.07 billion to $13.88 billion in just three days—a 7.9% drop. This shows that traders are reducing leverage after BTC’s rapid rise. Lower open interest usually signals caution, as traders take profits or cut exposure to manage risk. Analyst Arab Chain from CryptoQuant said this decline reflects “normal consolidation” after strong gains, not necessarily weakness. Other metrics support that view. Bollinger Bands on Bitcoin’s weekly chart have tightened to their narrowest range ever, a setup that often precedes major price moves. Some analysts expect this phase of calm to lead to another breakout. Institutional demand remains strong, with major players like BlackRock continuing to accumulate BTC.
Glassnode Data Strengthens Bitcoin’s Case
Glassnode’s latest report paints a bullish picture. It shows that both institutional and retail investors are increasing their holdings even as the price climbs. This “organic accumulation,” as Glassnode calls it, adds depth and stability to the rally. The data firm also highlighted how ETF inflows are reshaping market dynamics by providing a consistent stream of demand that absorbs selling pressure. Combined with a dovish Fed and reduced market leverage, this environment supports a sustainable uptrend rather than speculative excess. The combination of strong fundamentals, supportive policy signals, and robust on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin’s supercycle may truly be unfolding. While short-term corrections are likely, the long-term outlook remains bright. If current momentum holds, BTC could be on course for one of its most powerful bull runs yet—possibly redefining the narrative of digital assets in a world still guided by the Federal Reserve.
